Saudi Pipeline Fears Fade Fast as Oil Ends the Week Flat

Crude oil prices fell for a third consecutive session on Friday, leaving the week largely flat as the market reassessed the consequences of the shutdown of Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline. The closure was expected to have a smaller impact on supplies than originally feared.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures declined 1.6% and closed at $100.30 per barrel. Brent crude, the international benchmark, settled 0.9% lower at $103.87 per barrel.

The Friday losses left U.S. crude oil flat for the week, while Brent recorded a decline of nearly 1%. The weekly results followed three straight sessions of falling prices.

Despite that retreat, oil prices have gained more than 5% since a drone attack launched from Iraq damaged the Saudi pipeline last Thursday. The damage forced the pipeline to shut down.

The market’s changing assessment centers on the amount of oil that continues to move out of the Middle East despite the pipeline disruption. Recent flow estimates suggest Saudi Arabia has maintained substantial volumes through an alternative route.

“Middle East oil flows remain surprisingly strong despite the disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline,” Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at JPMorgan, said in a Friday note.

JPMorgan estimates that total oil flows from the Middle East averaged around 17 million barrels per day during the past 10 days. That figure is about 6 million bpd below the average recorded in 2025.

Satellite imagery indicates that Saudi Arabia moved 2.8 million bpd through Hormuz over the past six days, according to Kaneva. That compares with just 700,000 bpd moved through Hormuz in August.

The kingdom’s total exports reached 5 million bpd on Tuesday when measured as a moving average covering 10 days, Kaneva said. Those figures have helped temper initial concerns about the immediate supply impact of the East-West pipeline outage.

Kaneva nevertheless cautioned clients that the current volumes could prove difficult to maintain. Continued movement through the alternative route remains exposed to Iran’s position.

“For now, the workaround appears to be working—so long as Iran allows it to,” the analyst said.

The apparent success of that workaround has not eliminated the threats facing crude oil and petroleum product supplies. Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, said the risks remain significant.

Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen “likely retain the drone and weapons supplies required for further attacks on the East-West Pipeline and energy infrastructure along the Red Sea,” Croft said in a Thursday note.

That assessment points to the possibility of additional attacks against the pipeline or other energy assets along the Red Sea. The current disruption therefore remains a source of supply concern even as Middle East oil flows continue at stronger levels than initially expected.

Rapidan Energy estimates that the pipeline outage will constrain Saudi crude production and exports through at least the end of September. Its outlook places the duration of the shutdown at the center of the market’s continuing risk assessment.

“Risk remains skewed toward a larger disruption if the pipeline outage extends past September or Iran, the Houthis, or other proxy groups escalate attacks,” Rapidan said in a Thursday note.

Friday’s trading reflected the balance between those risks and the unexpectedly strong oil flows reported from the region. The immediate disruption appeared less severe than first feared, but analysts warned that current export volumes might not be sustainable.

The result was a third consecutive daily decline and a weekly performance that was nearly unchanged for U.S. crude. Brent ended the week slightly lower as attention remained fixed on the pipeline shutdown, Saudi export volumes and the possibility of further attacks.