U.S. Crude Production Races Toward Another Record in 2026

The United States is on course to extend its crude production record in 2026, with the US Energy Information Administration forecasting average output of 13.8 million b/d. The latest Short Term Energy Outlook places the industry just above the 13.7 million b/d record established in 2025.

Crude production averaged 13.7 million b/d during the first half of 2026. That represented an increase of 0.3 million b/d, or 2 percent, compared with the same six month period a year earlier.

The EIA attributed most of the increase to stronger production from the Permian region in Texas and New Mexico, along with additional barrels from the Federal Gulf of Mexico. Together, those producing regions continue to drive US supply growth even as operators maintain capital discipline.

Permian crude production is expected to average 6.8 million b/d in 2026, an increase of 3 percent from 2025. The forecast confirms the basin remains the primary engine of US onshore oil growth and a decisive contributor to national production records.

Higher crude prices are supporting the Permian advance. West Texas Intermediate averaged $84/bbl through August, a sharp improvement from the $65/bbl average recorded during 2025 and a level that gives many producers more room to fund drilling and completion programs.

Those prices also remain above the average breakeven levels reported by Permian operators. According to the Dallas Fed Energy Survey conducted in March, oil executives identified an average breakeven price of $69/bbl in the Midland basin and $63/bbl in the Delaware basin.

The gap between current prices and reported breakeven levels provides a favorable economic foundation for continued activity. It can support well development, completion work, field services, gathering systems, and the infrastructure required to move additional crude from producing areas to market.

Offshore production is supplying another important layer of growth. Federal Gulf of Mexico crude output increased by 10 percent, or 0.2 million b/d, during the first half of 2026 compared with production during the same period in 2025.

For the full year, the EIA expects Gulf production to rise by 3 percent, equivalent to about 0.1 million b/d. Although smaller than the gain recorded during the first half, that increase would still provide meaningful support for the national production forecast.

Four major projects that entered service during the past year have powered the offshore expansion. Their contribution shows how new floating production systems and subsea developments can deliver substantial volumes after years of engineering, construction, installation, and commissioning work.

The Shenandoah floating production unit has averaged 70,000 b/d since production began in July 2025. That makes Shenandoah the largest contributor among the recently started Gulf projects identified by the EIA.

The Ballymore subsea tieback has averaged 58,000 b/d since April 2025. As a subsea tieback, the project illustrates how operators can connect new resources to existing offshore infrastructure and add production without developing an entirely separate processing hub.

The Whale floating production unit has averaged 38,000 b/d since January 2025. The Salamanca floating production unit, which began producing later in 2025, has contributed an average of 25,000 b/d.

These four developments have collectively added a significant stream of offshore crude to the US supply base. Their output has helped counter natural declines from mature Gulf fields while increasing utilization of pipelines, subsea equipment, processing systems, and export infrastructure.

More offshore barrels are expected before the year closes. The EIA forecasts that four additional smaller projects will begin production by year end, offering further support for Gulf output and reinforcing the path toward another annual US crude production record.