Trump Says Oil Will Crash Like a Rock After Iran Conflict Ends as USO and UCO Rally

President Donald Trump predicted a swift reversal in oil prices once the military conflict with Iran is over, saying he does not expect the fighting to continue for long. His forecast arrived as crude markets moved higher following a major pipeline shutdown in Saudi Arabia.

In a Truth Social post, Trump said oil prices will “drop like a rock” as soon as the military conflict with Iran ends, adding that “that will not be long.” He presented crude as a temporary departure from what he described as falling prices across the United States.

Trump called oil a “temporary exception” to broader price declines that he said were occurring across the country. He also stated that “prices are coming down sharply.”

The president contrasted current crude prices with levels during the administration of former President Joe Biden. “Even Oil was higher under Biden than it is right now,” Trump said.

Trump also blamed Biden and his administration for price increases across the country. He stated that “price increases throughout America were caused by Sleepy Joe Biden and the Biden Administration, not by ‘TRUMP.’”

The president further said his administration had prevented Iran from having “a Nuclear Weapon.” His latest comments came as the Iran conflict was becoming a growing political challenge for Trump and Republicans approaching the midterms.

Last week, Trump defended his decisions concerning the Iran war during an interview with Fox News. Asked about concerns over the conflict heading into the midterms, he said, “I don't believe in the word regret.”

Trump continued, “You can always question yourself a little bit. And a few people have asked me that. If I had it to do again, I'd do exactly as I did.”

Oil markets, meanwhile, were confronting a significant physical supply disruption. Crude prices jumped on Monday after Saudi Arabia closed a critical pipeline that allows oil flows to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, according to CNBC.

Brent futures, the international benchmark, climbed above $106 per barrel. United States West Texas Intermediate futures crossed $102 as the pipeline closure threatened to constrain supplies in an already tight market.

Drones launched from Iraq damaged Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline on Thursday, forcing the Saudi government to shut the key crude artery. Riyadh had not disclosed the extent of the damage or indicated how long the pipeline would remain closed, CNBC reported.

Oil focused exchange traded products moved higher at the time of writing on Monday. The United States Oil Fund, which tracks the price of West Texas Intermediate and trades under USO, gained 0.76%.

ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Crude Oil, which trades under UCO, rose 0.19%. Stocktwits retail sentiment for both USO and UCO was rated “extremely bullish.”

Natural gas related trading showed a different split between price movement and investor sentiment. ProShares Ultra Bloomberg Natural Gas, trading under BOIL, was up nearly 5%, while its retail sentiment reading was “bearish.”

Futures readings were mixed at the time of writing. Crude Oil Brent futures were higher by 1.23%, while WTI Crude Oil futures were down 2.37%.

United States equities were also trading lower on Monday. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF was down 0.2%, while the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust had declined 0.9%.

The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq-100, was 0.35% lower. Stocktwits retail sentiment was “bearish” for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF and the Dow linked fund, while sentiment for QQQ was “extremely bearish.”

Trump’s forecast therefore landed during a volatile session marked by rising benchmark oil prices, pressure on major equity funds and sharply bullish retail sentiment toward USO and UCO. The timing of any decline remains tied, in Trump’s telling, to an end to the military conflict with Iran.