WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW

  • Kalshi traders see a 71% chance that average U.S. gasoline prices will exceed $4.60 per gallon in 2026.
  • Traders assign 57% odds to gasoline topping $4.80 and just over 40% odds to crossing $5.
  • West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 3.5% Monday to more than $103 per barrel.
  • Kalshi places 50% odds on gasoline remaining above $4.25 per gallon on election day, Nov. 3.

U.S. oil prices have returned to levels above $100 per barrel, while gasoline prices have climbed to their highest point in several months. The renewed rise in crude is reshaping expectations at the pump, where prediction market traders now see a strong chance of a fresh 2026 high.

The national average for gasoline peaked at $4.56 per gallon on May 21, according to AAA. Traders on Kalshi currently assign a 71% probability that the average will move above $4.60 per gallon during 2026.

That forecast would take gasoline beyond its previous peak for the year. The market therefore points toward another possible increase in the amount Americans are spending to fill their vehicles.

Kalshi traders are also placing substantial odds on sharper price increases. The platform shows a 57% probability that gasoline will exceed $4.80 per gallon, while the chance of crossing $5 stands at just over 40%.

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Those probabilities decline as the proposed price threshold rises. Even so, the contracts show traders giving meaningful odds to gasoline reaching levels near or beyond the record established several years earlier.

U.S. gasoline prices last reached a record high of just over $5 per gallon in June 2022. The latest Kalshi positioning places a little more than a 40% chance on prices crossing that level again in 2026.

The Kalshi market is structured around contracts asking participants whether gasoline prices will cross specified price points. Those contracts are resolved using national average price data provided by AAA.

The prediction market outlook has shifted as oil prices have marched higher in recent weeks. U.S. crude is again trading above $100 per barrel, with the commodity’s increase accompanying gasoline’s move to its highest levels in several months.

Tensions between the U.S. and Iran have escalated during the same period. That escalation has placed the status of the Strait of Hormuz in doubt and pushed oil prices higher, according to the source report.

The Strait of Hormuz is described as a critical passageway for the global supply of oil. Uncertainty surrounding that route has become part of the backdrop for the commodity’s latest increase.

On Monday, West Texas Intermediate crude futures were up 3.5%, taking the U.S. benchmark to more than $103 per barrel. That move kept crude firmly above the $100 threshold as traders assessed the outlook for retail fuel costs.

Kalshi traders also expect elevated oil and gasoline prices could persist rather than quickly retreat. Their election day positioning shows an evenly divided outlook on whether gasoline will remain above another significant price level in November.

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The platform places 50% odds on gasoline prices being above $4.25 per gallon on election day, Nov. 3. That contract measures whether the national average will be above the threshold on the specified date.

The election day market differs from contracts asking whether gasoline will cross $4.60, $4.80 or $5 at some point. Together, the markets show how traders are pricing both the possibility of higher peaks and the potential persistence of elevated prices.

Following oil’s recent advance, Kalshi now shows more than 70% odds of gasoline crossing $4.60 per gallon during 2026. That level would exceed the previous annual peak of $4.56 recorded by AAA on May 21.